When President-elect Joe Biden took the stage in Wilmington, Delaware, Saturday evening to ship his victory speech, he promised to “marshal the forces of science and the forces of hope” to combat the novel coronavirus, revive the financial system, obtain racial justice—and defend the local weather. The former vice chairman’s transition website calls for web zero carbon emissions by the yr 2050, a lofty objective required to maintain greenhouse fuel emissions from inflicting the 2 degrees Celsius warming that scientists say will outcome in catastrophic local weather-associated disruptions, droughts, and storms by the tip of the century.
Biden says he can save the local weather while boosting jobs. He needs the federal authorities to rebuild roads, bridges, and buildings to make them more environmentally pleasant; plug deserted oil and fuel wells to forestall emissions of planet-warming methane and carbon dioxide; construct new electrical-automobile charging stations and roll out electrical buses in each metropolis with more than 100,000 residents; and launch a Climate Conservation Corps—among other things. It’s a super ambitious plan. But given the gridlock on Capitol Hill during the past six years, and the fact that, despite the push for a Green New Deal by some Democrats last year, no major environmental legislation has passed Congress since 1990, will any of Biden’s green plans even get off the ground?
Environmental groups hope that Biden will at least get the climate bus rolling in the right direction, while acknowledging that federal legislation might be a bridge too far. Even if the two disputed Senate seats in Georgia somehow flip to the Democrats, that would leave a 50-50 tie, with incoming vice president Kamala Harris as the tie breaker. But under current Senate rules, any non-spending bills require 60 votes to clear a filibuster challenge, meaning that climate bills would need to overcome that higher hurdle. The only shortcut is if climate measures are folded into a must-pass spending bill that only requires 51 votes.
Combining climate bills and a coronavirus stimulus package might be the winning ticket, according to Andrew Light, a former climate negotiator in the Obama-era State Department and now a senior fellow at the World Resources Institute, a Washington-based nonpartisan think tank. “That is a place where you could imagine some possibility,” Light says. He notes that more than 10 percent of former president Obama’s $787 billion stimulus package in 2009 went to climate-related spending, including clean energy innovation and renovation of the nation’s electrical grid. If Biden can get Congress to pass his trillion-dollar stimulus plan, earmarking 10 percent of that to fight climate change “can add up and be impactful,” Light says.
Many observers say that Biden will have a better chance at pushing his climate agenda through executive orders that don’t require congressional approval. Obama allowed California to require cleaner automobile tailpipe standards under such an executive order, an order that President Donald Trump promptly canceled and is now being fought in court. Trump also reversed Obama’s Clean Power Plan that might have lower greenhouse emissions produced by electrical utilities and halted efforts to cut back local weather-warming chemical compounds from refrigerants recognized as hydrofluorocarbons.
For his half, Biden says he’ll reverse Trump’s anti-climate executive orders. On day one, Biden says, he’ll get the US again into the Paris Climate Agreement, which locations voluntary limits on nations’ greenhouse fuel emissions. The nation officially exited the Paris accord on November 4. He additionally plans to signal separate orders to ban new oil and gas drilling on federal lands and cancel the Keystone XL pipeline.
Trump’s local weather reversals, if left unchecked, will outcome in an extra 1.8 gigatons of greenhouse fuel emissions by the yr 2035, about one-third of the US complete, in line with a recent study from the Rhodium Group, an impartial vitality analysis and evaluation group. Study creator John Larsen, a former coverage analyst in the Department of Energy, says that the most effective local weather bang for the buck comes from boosting mileage requirements for US cars. And the most important driver of that motion would possibly come from states, not Congress.